Project 2025, some truth vs. the talk

AEI posted this recently to bring some truth to Project 2025 published by the Heritage Foundation.

Interesting facts about the warnings from progressives about various Republican candidates that did not come true, “Threat to Democracy?”.

Interesting comments after actually reading the document that many headlines are just not true.

I haven’t read it. Neither has Trump, as if he ever would.

https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/opinion-the-great-project-2025-freakout/2024/07?mkt_tok=NDc1LVBCUS05NzEAAAGUfhiFxrhOSQbuaMufPg6OgdUAoizZ9hmpBqbQxQTCCBSNGFB2i4n7gCDBuESNjpBItwLglxpPGE9e0HVss3I7GbTljYAK9rjGMJwyfwSlzXJvoA

 

 

Why Teachers aren’t paid more!

Our K-12 teachers deserve more compensation. Their unions are shrill in their condemnation of society’s failure to honor teachers with higher wages. I agree they should be paid more, IF—-that compensation was based on the pay structure of accountability for results.

Teachers resist any competition in the form of sectarian, charter schools,  home schooling, etc. Yet, our results as measured by PISA scores have been falling for decades. Having been a businessperson for 35 years and on the board of a dual-enrollment trade school I see the result of kids in high school not having the necessary skills to perform in today’s job market. Yet, the establishment continues to promote to the next grade.

Teachers resist measurement of the progress children make in their classes; they resist testing to an acceptable standard, SAT scores have fallen where K-12 is not up to par. The educations aristocracy decided to not require SAT/ACT for college entry and many colleges jumped on board. This short term decision has already proven to be an issue.

Lastly we are finally emerging from a 50 year bias against trade/technical schools in favor of four year colleges. I know the CEO of one of the top ten General Contractors and he laments regularly that finding workers in the trades is a critical path issue.

OK, is this just a rant? Somewhat, but New York Governor Hochel just signed a bill repealing student performance requirements in teacher performance reviews; thus poorly performing teachers with seniority will keep their jobs and kids will be deprived of a decent education. The unions triumph again for their members at the expense of students.

No wonder almost half the country has now expanded charter and other alternatives to the government run K-12 system. I contribute to that effort and hope to see current power structure cave in on itself and a Phoenix rise from the ashers to provide our kids with the education they deserve.

Teachers would be paid more if they joined the movement to measure results, and teach those who are struggling. Most do, for sure. Leadership is the problem.

A More Equally Balanced Governmental Process

The Supreme Court Thinks That by Arguing More, We Can Be Less Divided

I commend this short article as a learned analysis of rebalancing our three branches of government. Congress writing better, more specific laws; The executive issuing less executive orders and the court weighing in only when necessary.

It also says by doing so we will take some of the pressure out of our partisanship issue, something I had not thought about. Now our attention is focused on legislators versus the court. Abortion, fight it out in the state house. Bump Stocks, lobby your congressional representative to amend the machine gun law to include them.

The Undoing Project

“The Undoing Project” M Lewis

Copyright 2017, read May 2024

Not exactly sure where I heard of this book.

“Doubt if not a pleasant condition, bur certainty is an absurd one.” – Voltaire. This quote opens the book.  Another favorite quote along those same lines is “Right or wrong, but never in doubt.” Attributed to Mark Twain. Amos was a bit like that, 151.

This book is about two Israeli psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who collaborated to create a new understanding of how we humans make decisions, both correct and incorrect. They were present at the creation of Israel, were in the military through a couple of wars, taught in Israel, then both emigrated to the US/Canada to teach here. They are characterized as two people of one mind with very different personalities, both quirky in many ways yet perceiving some truths that are now recognized as foundational. Tversky died early of cancer (melanoma) and Kahneman was awarded the Nobel prize later for the work they created.

Lewis, as normal, writes with an engaging, novel-like style pulling you through the story. I have read other books of his and found them to create a narrative he seemed to want to make. An example, “The Big Short” about the financial crisis was very critical of the financial industry, rating agencies, greedy mortgage brokers, etc. but left out the fact that the Clinton administration supercharged the CRA to push home loans so to raise the home ownership percentages in the U.S.

Anyway. Collaboration with folks who have knowledge you don’t; Focusing on “undoing” which really means root cause failure analysis before making a decision; and reading Kahneman’s book, “Thinking Fast and Slowly” are keys to the decision-making process.

37 balance data with human intuition

44 Sunk cost prejudices our thoughts towards retention versus letting something go away.

62 The 35, a story about 35 Israel Army folks who were killed on an operation when they were discovered by a shepherd who they let go. Lone Survivor same story. The decision to not kill the boy was in error.

72 The halo effect, the root foundation for a decision is known to us and we overlook better data.

82 The Kahneman Score is a data point to grade pilots, kind of like the GRIT score, a piece of data to bounce human thought against. An evaluation score, like a personality test.

98 If you wait long enough a problem may not be urgent anymore, like Truman.

113 Similarity with what we know tends to lead us down a path to a decision that may be faulty

126 praise and correction works better than negative criticism

141 Take a break trying to solve a problem, constant work clouds the mind.

148 Confirmation bias is a killer.

173 Doctor decisions tested based on data, results were scary, disagreements, 5 days later a different diagnosis from same doctor.

195 A summary, our perceptions, biases, retained models of the past, confirmation bias, etc., no matter how much our training, lead to inaccurate decisions. We should use data and collaborate with others before making big decisions.

221 Acknowledging uncertainty is a key to good decisions, be vulnerable, ask around, read, get data all within the time frame for the decision.237

231 the need for certainty drives many poor decisions.  Wrigley. Making War.

248 we should evaluate a decision not on its’ outcome solely but the decision process that let to it.

261 Various tests show we make decisions to minimize regret, not maximize gain.

264 When one fails to take action and something not so good happens we tend to not accept responsibility for inaction. Confession of sin!

317 Delta pilot training on crew coordination reduced incidents by training in collaboration with others, data, etc. JAL accident in SFO-“I can’t tell the captain he is wrong”

327 The conjunction fallacy;

342 The Prospect Theory, the second most cited paper in economics. We make economic decisions the same way we make others and in order to make better decisions we must recognize our foibles. 60% of all acquisitions do not meet their financial projections.

 

A worthwhile read, a bit heavy on the relationship between the two men and somewhat theoretical on the philosophy side but I came away with a base knowledge of our decision processes need to be right in front of us and we need to collaborate.

“The Big Fail”

I put this in healthcare versus politics. Many want government provided healthcare. This book, and the article below about DA Henderson, show the dangers of doing so.

Government is too slow, too bureaucratic, too polarized to effectively manage healthcare. Our government, both sides, squelched dissent from scientists who have mostly been proven correct. If DA Henderson had been listened to millions would be alive today.

I recommend the book, a bit long but written for lay people and scrupulously researched with references noted.

Our republic depends upon and educated public, we are failing in that requirement to be around in a 100 years.

The weblink is from the Free Press and has pay wall, if you can’t access the book talks a lot about Dr. Henderson’s thoughts and policy recommendations.

 

https://www.thefp.com/p/the-prophets-da-henderson?utm_campaign=email-post&r=q5aav&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

 

Habits, two book reviews

Habits

I recently read a couple of books about habits, “Atomic Habits” by James Clear and “The Power of Habits” by Charles Duhigg.

One of my clients recommended the first to me and the second was referenced by the first so I read that also.

I knew habits were both positive and negative, in our personal and public lives, but learned how powerful they are in determining our ability to achieve our goals. They also operate semi-consciously in most everything we do. Our brains want to use little energy, so a habit enables us to act in the most efficient manner possible.

Atomic breaks down how a habit is established, how they are maintained and how to change a habit we may find objectionable. It is easy to read, summarizes each chapter, provides examples of each point that are relevant to us all.

The Power does a similar analysis but in much more depth.

Both books are worth the read to assist us in establishing positive habits and ameliorating negative ones. I would read Atomic first, then if more detail is desired The Power second.

Again, I learned how much of our actions are habits, meaning we don’t think about what we are doing thoroughly enough sometimes.

K through 12 education competition

I recently was involved in a conversation at my church about K-12 education and its’ lack of positive results over the last few decades as measured by the PISA scores and lack of knowledge and skills of high school graduates. My solution is competition, allowing parents to control where their tax dollars are spent for K-12 education.  My talking points are below.

K-12 Education Funding, More parental control of where to use taxpayer funds  February, 2024

I am an engineer by education, a former military pilot and over thirty years as a businessperson. Objective measurement of performance, data and continuous improvement have been my operating values in all these endeavors.

Let’s talk about some data. Our country and society owe the rising generation an effective education, so they are prepared to participate in their economic future and be responsible citizens. In 2022 80% of children attended traditional public schools, 6% charter public schools, 9% private schools, 3% home and 2% parochial. So 14% of parents paid taxes for public schools as well as tuition for other types of schools. All of these schools have to be certified by the state as providing appropriate minimum levels of instruction.

On average, the U.S. spends $15,908 per pupil on secondary education. The U.S. spends the fifth-highest amount per pupil compared to the 37 other OECD countries, behind Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria, and Norway. Our PISA (Program for International Student Assessment) scores placed us 20th.

Senator Tuberville recently said half of high school graduates can’t read their high school diploma Politifact, a political fact checking organization, put out a statement contradicting those facts  by offering the following data.

  • 50% of U.S. adults are unable to read an eighth-grade level book.
  • 46% of U.S. adults can’t understand labels on prescriptions.
  • 66% of American 12th graders are rated “basic” or “below basic” in reading achievement.
  • Only 37% of 12th graders reached or exceeded the academic preparedness benchmarks for both math and reading that would qualify them for entry-level college courses.

The irony is Tuberville overstated the facts, but the data supports the thrust of his comments. Looking objectively at these results has led me to investigate what we need to do to improve our results.

There is a strong movement for parents to gain control of the tax dollars and use them where they feel their child will get the most appropriate education. This movement has been growing over the last decade or so and crystallized when Terry McAuliffe said parents shouldn’t influence what schools teach in a Virginia governor race debate and when covid hit. Parents were thrust into the education process and were not happy with what they saw. Almost all parents want an effective education for their kids.

Some of the issues driving the demand for more parental control of where that money is spent are:

  1. 100,000 kids attend 206 schools in Alabama that are rated as “D or F”, 2022 data.
  2. USA PISA scores have been “average” as compared to OECD competitor countries for decades.
  3. Diplomas issued without objective evaluation of skills and knowledge.
  4. Social promotions
  5. Too much focus on “Going to an academic College” versus other types of post-secondary education, or the military.
  6. Court ordered elimination of religious themes.
  7. Teacher Tenure in K-12 schools means firing someone for being a poor teacher is very difficult. Alabama teacher compensation is based on time in grade and academic degree and is disconnected from student achievement. Other states do have a component of compensation based on achievement.

Some of the reasons we haven’t done much to improve the results are:

  1. Political partisanship, hardening of positions.
  2. Those with performing schools are fearful of their schools being affected.
  3. Teacher and administrator resistance to changing the status quo.
  4. Interest groups advocating for their particular mindset, both conservative and progressive.

 

A recent Stanford University study that detailed the above average performance of charter schools was featured in the February 3d edition of the Economist in both the opinion as well as the US section. It also highlighted the ferocious opposition of the education industry and unions to any competition.

It appears to me that the choice of where to spend our taxpayer funding should be established in K-12 education. We all know kids have different education needs and adapting the government run bureaucracy to accommodate those needs is near to impossible. Many parents want their kids to have an element of religious education along with traditional subjects. My own experience with Vestavia schools is there were a few teachers who should have been retired and no longer teach.

Our system is choice-based once graduating from high school, why should it not be the same for K-12. International ranking systems continue to show US universities occupy 13 of the top 20 rankings, competition forces continuous improvement. Once students enter the workforce they are evaluated on performance, output, not on inputs which it seems is the way we measure our return on investment in education. Einstein said insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, we need to try different approaches that the education industry and teacher unions seem to oppose.  Results are what matters. Choice will cause turmoil for a few years, but as with the rest of life, but choice will produce students better prepared for life and citizenship.

Bi partisanship is the answer, each side will have to give in on something. We try something, evaluate and change again until our results improve.

The End of Race Politics by Coleman Hughes

The End of Race Politics, Coleman Hughes

A 2024 book by Mr. Hughes. I learned of it from a Firing Line interview and was impressed with the clear headed and practical thought addressing a critical cultural issue for our republic.

I am 77, served in the Marine Corps and Alabama National Guard and then was employed by an international distribution company till retirement. I saw bigotry firsthand, as did my father who served during the second world war. My luck was being in an organization that was established as colorblind, meritocracy was the path to success. When a racist of any color decided to use their power to suppress another there was a culture and legal foundation to support others to stop injustice. Certainly not in every case but an overwhelming majority.

Coleman Hughes examines the current state of “neo-racists” who want to re-impose a culture that was fought against in the civil rights era. They are the other end of white supremacists. They play on past injustices to stoke the fire of resentment to create a place for them to reap personal and financial benefit for themselves and those close to them.

There are racists in our country today, of all colors. There always will be until we evolve out of the tribal, flight or flight creation of our species. One day maybe. Until then we enforce the laws against discrimination. We favor no one based on their race. We fix our K-12 education system so opportunity is available to all.

This was a short read but very powerful.

Work rules lead to positive results in public housing

Public Housing Should Have Work Rules, Too

Public Housing Should Have Work Rules, Too

By Howard Husock

City Journal

May 23, 2023

Thanks to the debt-ceiling showdown, Republicans appear to have a fighting chance to add a work requirement for those receiving SNAP (food stamp) and Medicaid benefits. They should also turn their attention to another major federal program that fosters dependency and discourages work: housing assistance. Local experiments across the country suggest that requiring those in public housing or getting housing vouchers to enter the labor market has positive effects, including upward mobility.

“Public and other assisted housing” is not a minor program. Housing vouchers are the largest item in the $73 billion Housing and Urban Development budget. At $30 billion, vouchers are almost twice as large an “outlay” as cash welfare ($16 billion), which has its own work requirement (though blue states have been finding ways around it.)

Unlike Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, housing benefits come with no time limit: about 32,000 New York City public-housing residents have lived in the projects for more than 40 years. What’s more, housing-benefit rules include a strong disincentive to work or raise earnings. Public and assisted-housing residents pay 30 percent of their income in rent—which means that, as their income rises, so does their rent. No private tenant would sign a lease like that, but it’s the rule for some of the poorest Americans.

By contrast, a handful of public-housing authorities—including Chicago and Atlanta, two of the nation’s biggest—have had work requirements for more than a decade. They’ve been among a small group of local public-housing agencies (39 of nearly 3,000) included in Moving to Work, a Clinton-era initiative.

The work-requirement experiment has been closely evaluated, including by the left-leaning Urban Institute. In Chicago, which exempted the elderly and disabled from the program and focused on public-housing residents rather than housing-voucher recipients, more than half of project residents (51 percent) had “no wage income” in 2010; by 2017, that proportion had declined to 38 percent. (Job training and other “good faith efforts” also satisfied the work requirement.) Average annual incomes rose from $11,568 in 2010 to $14,205 in 2015. Housing Authority staff interviewed for the report were enthusiastic, saying that, in their experience, “People want to do better. They want to work. They want money. They want to buy their children things.” The staff also noted that residents were not just working but, over time, getting better-paying jobs.

Work rules also resulted in higher rent payments, though that could also be seen as a negative, since it would be better for residents to keep more of what they earn.

Enforcement is serious. Residents looking to continue in assisted-housing programs must show pay stubs. Officials contact those known to be “noncompliant” weekly and offer help in finding work. Residents covered by the policy are given 90 days to comply or face the possibility of eviction (though that is unlikely).

The effects, by the standards of social science research, must be viewed as stunningly positive, as summarized in the bland language of the Urban Institute report:

The share of residents working more than 25 hours a week increased after the agency began enforcing its work requirement policy. The report found no increase in evictions and a modest increase in the rate of positive move outs because of gains in income attributed to compliance with the work requirement policy. A subsequent study that examined self-reported health and wellbeing outcomes found mixed effects associated with the agency’s work requirement policy; it found that residents wanted to work, and that increases in income decreased stress.

“Positive move outs” mean leaving the projects. Upward mobility means that those stuck on waiting lists may get a place—but be subject to the work requirement. This approach and others promise to change the culture of housing assistance.

Moving to Work has expanded from 39 housing authorities to 126. They will have good examples other than Chicago’s to emulate. In Atlanta, as I’ve written, high-rises were demolished and tenants were “vouchered-out” with a work requirement; labor-force participation rose from 18 percent to 62 percent. In San Bernadino, California, a five-year time limit has yielded strong results, according to an evaluation by Loma Linda University. Even without an explicit work requirement (though the city has begun to experiment with one), the imperative to prepare for an end to assistance led to a 26 percent increase in employment and a 145 percent increase in earned income after the five-year period. Education levels rose, too. All this will be news to Representative Pete Aguilar, who represents San Bernadino; the congressman had said that the work requirement for food stamps would “take food out of the mouths of kids.”

In insisting on linking work requirements to the social safety net, Kevin McCarthy and House Republicans are on to something—namely, that work requirements work.